China's Aggressive Moves in Disputed Waters: Will the Philippines' New Strategy Pay Off?

Tensions Escalate in the West Philippine Sea

The West Philippine Sea, the portion of the South China Sea that falls within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), has seen a significant escalation in tensions in recent months as China pursues an increasingly aggressive stance in asserting its territorial claims.

Despite an international arbitral ruling in 2016 that invalidated China’s expansive “nine-dash line” claim, Beijing has continued to expand its presence through the construction of artificial islands, deployment of maritime militia vessels, and harassment of Philippine fishermen and military.

Key Flashpoints

Two key flashpoints in the ongoing dispute are Scarborough Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal:

Scarborough Shoal fell under China’s control after a standoff in 2012. The Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) has accused Chinese fishermen of causing severe damage to the coral reefs through clam harvesting and illegal fishing practices.
Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines maintains a small military detachment aboard the grounded ship BRP Sierra Madre, has seen repeated incidents of Chinese Coast Guard and maritime militia vessels blocking Philippine resupply missions. A serious confrontation occurred on June 17, 2024, when Chinese vessels rammed a Philippine boat, injuring several sailors.

Philippine Response

Under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the Philippines has adopted a more assertive posture in defending its maritime rights, while still seeking to resolve disputes peacefully in accordance with international law.

Key elements of the Philippine response include:

Increased transparency: The Marcos administration has initiated a campaign to systematically document and publicize Chinese aggressive actions, generating greater domestic and international support for the Philippines’ position.
Infrastructure development: The Philippines is investing in dual-use infrastructure in the West Philippine Sea, such as runways and ports, to enhance its presence and capabilities in the disputed areas.
Defense cooperation: Manila has strengthened defense ties with the United States, Japan, Australia, and other partners through joint exercises, access agreements, and capacity-building initiatives .
Legal action: The government is exploring options for further legal cases against China, including over environmental damage caused by Chinese clam harvesting and island-building activities.

Partner Country	Key Developments
United States	– Expanded access to Philippine bases under EDCA – Joint exercises like Balikatan – Clarification of Mutual Defense Treaty obligations
Japan	– Provision of patrol vessels and other equipment – Negotiations on Reciprocal Access Agreement – Trilateral cooperation with the US
Australia	– Joint patrols and exercises – Capacity-building assistance – Potential Reciprocal Access Agreement

China’s Stance

China has consistently blamed the Philippines for the rising tensions, accusing Manila of infringing on Chinese sovereignty and violating previous commitments . Beijing demands bilateral negotiations to resolve disputes and opposes any involvement by the United States or other external parties.

Chinese officials have characterized the Philippines’ increased military cooperation with the US and other partners as provocative and destabilizing.

However, China’s own actions, including the deployment of military vessels and construction of artificial islands, have been the primary drivers of regional concerns .

Implications and Outlook

The escalating tensions in the West Philippine Sea have significant implications for regional stability, freedom of navigation, and the rules-based international order. Key developments to watch include:

The Philippines’ ability to sustain its assertive approach and rally international support
China’s response and potential further escalation
The level of engagement and commitment from the United States and other partners
Progress on legal and diplomatic efforts to manage and resolve disputes

Experts have warned that the risk of armed conflict cannot be ruled out if current trends continue .

However, the Philippines has made clear that it does not seek war and remains committed to pursuing peaceful solutions in accordance with international law .

Ultimately, the future of the West Philippine Sea will depend on the strategic choices and actions of all parties involved. Effective deterrence, dialogue, and adherence to international norms will be essential to prevent further escalation and chart a path towards long-term stability and cooperation.

Recent Incidents and Diplomatic Responses

On June 17, 2024, a serious confrontation occurred near Second Thomas Shoal when Chinese Coast Guard vessels rammed and damaged Philippine boats attempting to conduct a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre. The incident resulted in injuries to eight Philippine Navy sailors, with one losing a finger in the melee.

This marked a significant escalation in China’s efforts to prevent the Philippines from maintaining its presence at Second Thomas Shoal.

In previous months, Chinese vessels had employed water cannons and dangerous maneuvers to harass Philippine boats, but the June 17 incident was the first time that Chinese forces had directly boarded a Philippine vessel and seized weapons.

The Philippines strongly condemned China’s actions, with the Department of Foreign Affairs issuing a diplomatic protest and the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea (NTF-WPS) characterizing the incident as a “blatant violation of international law”. However, the NTF-WPS spokesperson also emphasized that the Philippines was not interpreting the incident as an armed attack that would trigger the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty .

President Marcos reaffirmed the Philippines’ commitment to pursuing peaceful solutions to the dispute, stating that his country would not instigate war in the West Philippine Sea. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) leadership also highlighted the “great restraint” shown by Philippine forces in preventing a further escalation of tensions.

International reactions to the June 17 incident were swift and supportive of the Philippines. The United States, Japan, Australia, and Canada all issued statements condemning China’s actions and calling for adherence to the 2016 arbitral ruling . The U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines, MaryKay Carlson, characterized China’s actions as “aggressive and dangerous”.

However, some analysts have questioned whether these diplomatic responses are sufficient to deter China’s increasingly assertive behavior in the South China Sea. Pressure is growing for the United States and other partners to take more concrete actions to support the Philippines and uphold freedom of navigation and the rules-based international order.

Challenges and Opportunities for the Philippines

As tensions continue to rise in the West Philippine Sea, the Philippines faces a delicate balancing act in defending its sovereign rights while avoiding an open conflict with China. President Marcos has sought to chart a middle course, adopting a more assertive posture than his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, while still emphasizing the importance of dialogue and peaceful resolution.

One of the key challenges for the Philippines is the significant asymmetry in military capabilities between itself and China. Despite ongoing efforts to modernize its armed forces, the Philippines remains heavily outmatched by the People’s Liberation Army Navy and the Chinese Coast Guard. This imbalance underscores the importance of the Philippines’ alliances and partnerships, particularly with the United States.

The U.S.-Philippine alliance has been reinvigorated under the Marcos administration, with expanded access to Philippine bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) and increased joint exercises and training. However, questions remain about the extent of U.S. commitment to the Philippines in the event of a conflict with China, particularly given the ambiguities surrounding the application of the Mutual Defense Treaty to the South China Sea.

Another challenge for the Philippines is the need to balance its security concerns with its economic ties to China. China is the Philippines’ largest trading partner, and Chinese investments have played a significant role in the country’s infrastructure development in recent years. While President Marcos has taken a harder line on the West Philippine Sea issue than his predecessor, he has also sought to maintain a constructive relationship with Beijing on economic matters.

Despite these challenges, the Philippines also has important opportunities to strengthen its position in the West Philippine Sea. The country’s 2016 arbitral victory, while rejected by China, provides a strong legal foundation for its claims and has garnered widespread international support. By consistently highlighting China’s violations of international law and the 2016 ruling, the Philippines can continue to rally global opinion behind its cause.

The Philippines can also leverage its strategic location and partnerships to enhance its maritime domain awareness and response capabilities. Cooperation with the United States, Japan, Australia, and other partners on information sharing, capacity building, and joint exercises can help to deter Chinese aggression and provide a more robust defense of Philippine interests .

Ultimately, the path forward for the Philippines in the West Philippine Sea will require a combination of strategic patience, effective diplomacy, and steadfast defense of its sovereign rights. By working closely with its allies and partners, investing in its own capabilities, and upholding the rule of law, the Philippines can safeguard its national interests and contribute to a more stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific region.

Summary

The recent escalation of tensions in the West Philippine Sea underscores the complex and volatile nature of the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. As China continues to assert its claims through increasingly aggressive actions, the Philippines and its partners face a critical challenge in upholding the rules-based international order and defending the rights of smaller nations.

President Marcos’ more assertive approach to the West Philippine Sea issue, coupled with enhanced cooperation with the United States and other allies, has raised the stakes in the dispute and drawn a stronger international response to China’s behavior. However, the risk of further escalation and potential armed conflict remains a serious concern.

Moving forward, it will be essential for the Philippines to continue to pursue a multifaceted strategy that combines diplomatic efforts, legal challenges, and strategic partnerships to protect its interests and promote stability in the region. By working closely with like-minded nations and consistently highlighting the importance of adherence to international law, the Philippines can help to shape a more peaceful and prosperous future for the Indo-Pacific.

At the same time, all parties involved in the South China Sea disputes must recognize the urgent need for dialogue, confidence-building measures, and peaceful resolution of differences. Only through a commitment to the rule of law, mutual respect, and open communication can the nations of the region hope to overcome the challenges posed by competing territorial claims and geopolitical rivalries.

The future of the West Philippine Sea, and the broader South China Sea, will have far-reaching implications not only for the countries directly involved but for the entire international community. As such, it is incumbent upon all stakeholders to work together in pursuit of a stable, equitable, and rules-based order that benefits all nations and peoples of the Indo-Pacific.