The 2024 Philippine Rainy Season Begins: What to Expect According to PAGASA

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has officially declared the onset of the rainy season in the Philippines as of May 29, 2024 .

Say goodbye to the sweltering summer heat and hello to more frequent rains, thunderstorms, and potential typhoons. Let’s dive into what PAGASA says we can expect in the coming months.

Criteria for Declaring the Rainy Season Met

PAGASA announced that the conditions needed to declare the start of the rainy season have been satisfied.

In recent days, the western parts of Luzon and the Visayas experienced significant rainfall from scattered showers, thunderstorms, Typhoon Aghon (Ewiniar), and the southwest monsoon or habagat.

The volume of rain and prevailing winds from the southwest were enough for PAGASA to make it official – the rainy season is here.

La Niña Likely to Develop, Increasing Rainfall

Compounding the onset of the rainy season, PAGASA also warned there is a high probability that a La Niña pattern will emerge during the July to September period this year. La Niña is characterized by cooler than normal ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

For the Philippines, La Niña often leads to above-average rainfall, especially in the latter part of the year . PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando advised the public and government agencies “to take precautionary measures against the adverse impacts of the rainy season, habagat, and the impending La Niña such as floods and rain-induced landslides.”

More Tropical Cyclones Expected

Due to the anticipated development of La Niña, PAGASA projects the Philippines will face more tropical cyclones in 2024 compared to last year.

The weather bureau expects 13 to 16 cyclones to enter or develop within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this year, up from just 11 storms in 2023 which was an El Niño year.

However, this is still slightly below the typical average of 19-20 storms the country sees annually.

PAGASA’s climate monitoring chief Ana Liza Solis explained that there tend to be more cyclones during La Niña years because of warmer ocean temperatures, especially in the western Pacific near the Philippines.

Shorter Lead Times for Storm Preparations

Science Secretary Renato Solidum pointed out that with the warm La Niña waters closer to the Philippines, tropical cyclones could potentially reach land faster after forming. “It means the lead time is shorter.

For cyclones closer to land, there is less time to prepare,” Solidum said.

This underscores the importance of staying alert and having emergency plans in place as storms can develop and intensify rapidly. From June to November, PAGASA predicts 10-13 tropical cyclones will enter or form inside the PAR.

Monsoon Breaks Will Still Occur

Although the rainy season has begun, it doesn’t mean non-stop rain every single day for the next several months. PAGASA notes that even during the rainy season, there will be “breaks in rainfall that extend over a few days or weeks,” which are referred to as monsoon breaks.

These monsoon breaks are periods of drier weather that can occur between the passages of rain-bearing weather systems. So while we should expect a generally wetter pattern in the coming months, some stretches of drier days will still be mixed in.

Preparing for the Rainy Season

With the rainy season’s arrival coinciding with a likely La Niña and the threat of an increased number of tropical cyclones, it’s wise for the public to prepare for the potential impacts. Some basic tips include:

Ensuring your home is in good repair and able to withstand heavy rains and winds
Having an emergency kit stocked with essentials like food, water, flashlights, batteries, etc.
Identifying evacuation routes and safe locations in case flooding occurs
Staying informed of the latest weather bulletins from PAGASA
Avoiding flooded areas and not attempting to drive across inundated roads
Securing loose objects outside that could be blown around by strong winds

By taking sensible precautions and heeding the advice of PAGASA and local authorities, we can minimize the risks posed by the hazards of the rainy season. Stay safe and dry out there!